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Abstract ContextThe interaction between topography and wind influences snow cover patterns, which can determine the distribution of species reliant on snow-free habitats. Past studies suggest snow accumulation creates suboptimal breeding habitats for Adélie penguins, leading to colony extinctions. However, evidence linking snow cover to landscape features is lacking. ObjectivesWe aimed to model landscape-driven snow cover patterns, identify long-term weather changes, and determine the impact of geomorphology and snow conditions on penguin colony persistence. MethodsWe combined remotely sensed imagery, digital surface models, and > 30 years of weather data with penguin population monitoring from 1975 to 2022 near Palmer Station, west Antarctic Peninsula. Using a multi-model approach, we identified landscape factors driving snow distribution on two islands. Historic and current penguin sub-colony perimeters were used to understand habitat selection, optimal habitat features, and factors associated with extinctions. ResultsDecadal and long-term trends in wind and snow conditions were detected. Snow accumulated on lower elevations and south-facing slopes driven by the north-northeasterly winds while Adélie penguins occupied higher elevations and more north-facing slopes. On Torgersen Island, sub-colonies on south aspects have gone extinct, and only five of the 23 historic sub-colonies remain active, containing 7% of the 1975 population. Adélie penguins will likely be extinct on this island in < 25 years. ConclusionsAdélie penguin populations are in decline throughout the west Antarctic Peninsula with multiple climate and human impacts likely driving Adélie penguins towards extinction in this region. We demonstrate precipitation has detrimental effects on penguins, an often overlooked yet crucial factor for bird studies. 

ABSTRACT The shifting climatic regime of maritime Antarctica is driving complex changes across trophic levels that are manifesting differentially across its resident species and regions. Land‐breeding pinnipeds have increased their seasonal attendance near Palmer Station since the earliest observations in the mid‐1900s, and Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) now represent a significant but unstudied predator population in the region during the austral summer. To characterize the timing of abundance and the fine‐scale distribution of this seasonal attendance, we carried out regular drone surveys of terrestrial habitats near Palmer Station in the austral summer of 2020. Using repeat animal counts and photogrammetric data products, we modeled fur seal abundance at survey sites over the period of observation, modeled habitat suitability based on fine‐scale topographic habitat characteristics, and estimated abundance across terrestrial habitats near Palmer Station as a function of these products. High habitat suitability was most associated with low‐slope and low‐elevation inshore terrain and with relatively dry, sun‐exposed, and wind‐sheltered locations, and estimated peak abundance occurred on March 11 (day 71) of 2020. Models estimated 2289–5544 (95% confidence interval) fur seals on land across all potential terrestrial habitats (41 discrete sites) near Palmer Station and Wylie Bay on the south coast of Anvers Island during peak abundance. This constitutes a first estimate of the aggregate timing, abundance, and distribution of Antarctic fur seals in the terrestrial habitats of this region—a critical first step in understanding the phenology and ecological role of this largely nonbreeding predator population. These findings additionally establish a baseline from which to estimate future changes in this seasonal population and its effects on sympatric terrestrial and marine biota, as the physical environment and food chain of the western Antarctic Peninsula transform under long‐term climatic changes. 

Abstract Climate change is leading to phenological shifts across a wide range of species globally. Polar oceans are hotspots of rapid climate change where sea ice dynamics structure ecosystems and organismal life cycles are attuned to ice seasonality. To anticipate climate change impacts on populations and ecosystem services, it is critical to understand ecosystem phenology to determine species activity patterns, optimal environmental windows for processes like reproduction, and the ramifications of ecological mismatches. Since 1991, the Palmer Antarctica Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) program has monitored seasonal dynamics near Palmer Station. Here, we review the species that occupy this region as year‐round residents, seasonal breeders, or periodic visitors. We show that sea ice retreat and increasing photoperiod in the spring trigger a sequence of events from mid‐November to mid‐February, including Adélie penguin clutch initiation, snow melt, calm conditions (low winds and warm air/sea temperature), phytoplankton blooms, shallow mixed layer depths, particulate organic carbon flux, peak humpback whale abundances, nutrient drawdown, and bacterial accumulation. Subsequently, from May to June, snow accumulates, zooplankton indicator species appear, and sea ice advances. The standard deviation in the timing of most events ranged from ~20 to 45 days, which was striking compared with Adélie penguin clutch initiation that varied <1 week. In general, during late sea ice retreat years, events happened later (~5 to >30 days) than mean dates and the variability in timing was low (<20%) compared with early ice retreat years. Statistical models showed the timing of some events were informative predictors (but not sole drivers) of other events. From an Adélie penguin perspective, earlier sea ice retreat and shifts in the timing of suitable conditions or prey characteristics could lead to mismatches, or asynchronies, that ultimately influence chick survival via their mass at fledging. However, more work is needed to understand how phenological shifts affect chick thermoregulatory costs and the abundance, availability, and energy content of key prey species, which support chick growth and survival. While we did not detect many long‐term phenological trends, we expect that when sea ice trends become significant within our LTER time series, phenological trends and negative effects from ecological mismatches will follow.